Chinese Aggression Fuels Indo-Pacific Grey Zone Wars

China’s approach in the South China Sea is becoming far more aggressive. How does America view the rise of grey zone conflicts in the Indo-Pacific? In this illuminating episode, Ray Powell and James Carouso, hosts of the “Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?” podcast, dive into the critical importance of this region for global security and its implications for the second term of the Trump administration.

 Explore key issues, including China's territorial ambitions, the strategic importance of the Indo-Pacific, and how these dynamics influence U.S. foreign policy and global stability.

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Links From the Episode:
• GNSI Tampa Summit 5: The Russia-Ukraine War: Lessons for Future Conflicts

• Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific? Podcast

• Raymond Powell’s article on the South China Sea 

At the Boundary from the Global and National Security Institute at the University of South Florida, features global and national security issues we’ve found to be insightful, intriguing, fascinating, maybe controversial, but overall just worth talking about.

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Transcript

Jim Cardoso: 0:12

Jim, hello everyone. Welcome to another episode of at the boundary, the podcast from the global and national security Institute at the University of South Florida. I'm Jim Cardoso, Senior Director for GNSI, and your host for at the boundary. As this episode airs, most of America and the world is focused on the present day inauguration of President Donald Trump. However, at GNSI, we focus not just on what's happening today, but what it means for policy makers in the future. As an example, just five months ago, a Philippines Coast Guard ship was rammed by a much larger Chinese Coast Guard ship in the South China Sea, while a news crew from 60 minutes was on board. The incident didn't garner a ton of attention at the time, because it was competing with another political event, the Democratic National Convention. But it's just one example of escalating tensions in the Indo Pacific region that the Trump administration will need to deal with over the next four years. More on that in a moment. First registration is open for genus eyes Tampa summit five, scheduled for March 4 through fifth here at USF the Russia, Ukraine. War lessons for future conflicts. We'll look at the strategic innovation that has characterized this conflict and will impact those to come. Drone usage, disinformation and misinformation, cyber warfare, use of social media and medical care will be some of the lessons learned we'll explore, take a look at the full agenda and list of speakers on our website, which include White House National Security Spokesman John Kirby USF, class of 1985 and General Frank McKenzie GNSI, Executive Director and former commander for US Central Command. We'll drop a link in the show notes, and hope you'll join us for that. So why should the Trump administration care about what's happening in the Indo Pacific? Fortunately, we have with us today, Ray Powell and Jim Caruso, who host the coincidentally titled podcast, why should we care about the Indo Pacific? Ray is retired Air Force colonel and director of sea light, a maritime transparency initiative within the Gordian Knott center for national security innovation at Stanford. Jim was a career US State Department diplomat and is Senior Advisor and Chairman of the advisory board to the Australian chair in the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Both have extensive experience in the Indo Pacific region. Ray and Jim. Welcome to the podcast. Great to be with you. Thanks. Good name. Jim Cardoso, yes, exactly. And our last names are like one syllable off, so it's a beautiful thing. So let's start with terms and definitions. Most listeners, okay, they're likely familiar with the Pacific Ocean and the major geographical locations in the region, however, likely less so on the details of the expansive geography and the cultural diversity, which I perceive you seek to capture with your specific term Indo Pacific. Can you explain what this regional reference refers to and what your podcast focus is on?

James Carouso: 3:16

I'll start off and Ray will correct me. Basically. The question is, where does the Indian Ocean begin, and where does the Pacific Ocean begin? And the Japanese figured this out quite a while ago. Sorry, referring to the reaches Indo Pacific. And I think it was Harry Harris, when he was commander of indo at the time PAYCOM, who said, no, no, we go the world away from Hollywood to the Bollywood. We're not going to just call the Pacific. And we're not just Indian, we're Indo Pacific. So it's this big region with a lot of water and a lot of issues to cover.

Jim Cardoso: 3:51

Ray, anything to add to that? Or did he nail it?

Raymond Powell: 3:55

No, he nailed it. Okay, simple,

Jim Cardoso: 3:57

direct to the points. Okay, so Ray, we'll go to you this time. So let's dig into a bit with the corollary question to your podcast title. Why should the Trump administration care about the Indo Pacific Ray? We'll start with you.

Raymond Powell: 4:11

Well, sure. I mean, I think you know, it comes back to China. Frankly, China has been called a lot of things by the Strategic Community. A favorite seems to be the pacing threat, which basically means this is a threat that we need to sort of peg to if we're to understand what our international security challenges are. It all starts with China, and I think that that's true. And I think that the Indo Pacific, the countries of the Indo Pacific, sort of live that every day in a way that we haven't until recently. So, you know, I think that that's really where that comes down to.

Jim Cardoso: 4:48

Over to you Jim, why should the WHY SHOULD President Trump care about the Indo Pacific?

James Carouso: 4:53

Well, it's a huge part of global GDP, huge part of our trading partners. It is. The pathway through strategic waterways like the Straits of Malacca, is the gateway to Australia. And if you think back to World War Two, the Japanese thought is pretty important, because they were island hopping all the way south, right up to Papua, New Guinea, and ready to take Australia. So it's it's important that's south. Then, of course, there's the whole Pacific Ocean, and that's to our doorstep, right to Hawaii and beyond. So we have keen strategic interest in this entire region.

Jim Cardoso: 5:31

Your Podcast, it by design, both in the moment and it's the same. It's by design. It's in the moment, and it looks forward as well. And you've done, I think you're at 50 episodes now. You kicked off in april 2024, and before we're done here, you're gonna, you're gonna brag a bit on your podcast or rightfully so, what Indo Pacific areas of concern are your guests talking about?

Raymond Powell: 5:56

Well, of course, China, some of our most popular podcasts, frankly, have been very India focused. And we have enjoyed bringing on a number of guests who, frankly, South Asia is less of the area that Jim and I spent our government years in. And so, you know, we have enjoyed kind of unpacking the economic opportunities, the strategic challenges, all these sort of different and it is a very different kind of way to look at the world from an India centric which is going to become, actually increasingly important going forward. As many people are maybe aware, India just surpassed China as the most populous country in the world, and its economic strength and its political strength is only growing.

James Carouso: 6:45

Jim a lot of the peace over the past decades, since World War Two in the region happy because the US was present and so powerful it was affected deterrence. And what concerns me and Ray is that deterrence, clearly it's beginning to fail, as we see China becoming more and more aggressive in places like the South China Sea, in activities around Taiwan and the Senkaku islands of Japan and even on the border of India and Bhutan. So is deterrence failing? Is Chinese activity in the so called gray zone, which you can get into? Is that a precursor, or are they so successful with the gray zone, a continued salami slicing to achieve their goals,

Jim Cardoso: 7:28

not to, not to get into politics, I'm going to like try assiduously to avoid that. But you talked about effective deterrence by the US is that? Is that driven by I mean, will that be changed? Will that evolve in a Trump administration as compared to a Biden administration, or is it something that's more baked into where America is headed right now in the year 2024 What are your thoughts on that? Well,

Raymond Powell: 7:52

sure. I mean, we're a democracy, and politics matters. So the way that the administration looks at the Indo Pacific and looks at geostrategy more broadly, and of course, looks at things like economics and trade matters and so, you know, the first Trump administration, both Jim and I were down at the embassy in Australia at the time, and we were dealing very closely with the US ally, Jim as the charge aid affairs, and I As the defense attache. And things that the Trump administration said and did mattered a lot, and some of them actually, quite frankly, were pretty helpful. You know, the redoing our national security strategy, national defense strategy, was huge. Yeoman's work that needed to have been done to refocus us on the on the China threat. Because, frankly, our natural, our national conversation about China has been lagging the reality on the ground for years, and so that was really important. On the other hand, you know, Donald Trump is famously verbose. He says a lot of things, and not all of it is terribly helpful, and not all of it means very much. And that's that's something for people who are in government to get used to, because we're used to the idea that presidential proclamations have this huge weight to them, and in a Trump administration, it's just not going to mean as much. Or the ones that do mean something are going to be harder to suss out than the other ones. And getting

James Carouso: 9:18

back to the point of what the Trump administration is going to do about these issues in the Indo Pacific, they keep talking about China being the real threat and that Europe should take care of Ukraine, for instance. So on one hand, it seems likely that there will be no diminution of focus on China. On the other hand, I would expect, I think Ray does, too, that the demand for our allies and partners in the region to up their game in terms of defense spending and perhaps in taking some other activity to counter China could be a real source of tension. Yeah,

Jim Cardoso: 9:59

let's tease that. That a little bit more. You know, a key feature of Indo Pacific is the alliances and partnership. You've got aukus, you've got quad you've got others, and there is a degree of, I would say, the unknown and how these alliances and partnerships are going to thrive over the next four years, given, as we discussed President Trump's, let's just say dynamic rhetoric on the topic, especially, especially regards to trade and tariffs. What are your if you want to expand on what you just said, Jim and Ray as well, talk about that a bit.

James Carouso: 10:28

Well, let's, let's start with the apparent demand that allies spend at least 2% if not up to 5% of GDP on defense. So I personally am expecting that to be a continued theme. Secondly, yeah, during the first Trump administration, may remember, a global steel and aluminum tariff was put on, which included our allies, which includes Australia, and it was done under the rubric of this was a national security issue, so our Australian partners who've been with us in every fight we've had since World War One, were, we'll call it myth, that they were considered a national security threat, because point zero, 2% of US Steel imports came from Australia. Now you're

Jim Cardoso: 11:17

avoiding the PG. You're voting the PG 13 terms that may be applied to this situation as well. I would think

James Carouso: 11:23

I'm trying to I know how sensitive you can be.

Jim Cardoso: 11:28

I appreciate that

James Carouso: 11:29

you try to be gentle. But Australia was eventually exempted from the tariffs. But who's to say this universal 10% tariff that Trump's talking about will again be applied, which will again be on the National Security basis, apparently. So there's gonna be some, some Sterman drone I would expect going forward.

Raymond Powell: 11:52

Yeah, I think you know, this also gets to the theme of and we've seen this play out in administrations in the past several years, including the first Trump administration, to what extent do you confront our allies versus assure our allies? And I think you're going to see a mode shift away from some of the assurance and towards some of the confrontation. Now you have to do both things right. You don't want, for example, allies to sort of get used to the idea that the US will do everything for them and not ask anything of them. So that you have to there has to be a balance. Now, of course, when you're in the country, as we've both been in some of these countries, if you fail to assure allies, if they don't believe that the US, for example, is going to be around for the long term, the concern then becomes, do they begin to sort of hedge in the direction of China? They start to make side deals. They start to give away some of the things that we think are really important to maintain in the name just to make sure that they don't fall under the hairy eyeball of Beijing. And that's a it is a delicate balance. Is one of those things that, frankly, our allies are starting to think, I think it used to, because we have kind of whipsawed back and forth between assurance and confrontation. But it is going to be, I think one of the things that you'll see in this administration is you'll be, you'll see it a movement back in the direction of more confrontation.

James Carouso: 13:23

Just Just to add to that, what Ray and I in our careers in Southeast Asia were constantly told how effective Chinese propaganda is, and that propaganda is the US. You know, they pivot, they go back and forth. They have different administrations. We're your neighbor, Southeast Asia. We will always be here. We will always have keen interest. You'll always be our priority. America is unreliable, so when you're making your decisions, be very clear. You know that we will always be here at America. Who the who knows

Raymond Powell: 13:53

and we will always be here is both an assurance and

Jim Cardoso: 13:57

a parent. They're using confrontation and assurance as well to their advantage. You know that the US goes back and forth. I think a lot of people would probably agree with that, that China will always be there. I think there's a I would say that, you know, you know, Ray, you talked about that India's taken over China in terms of population. And then you start looking long term at Chinese population, there's some, some dire predictions out there now it's beyond the next four years. But does that is that taken into account at all by some of these, these, these, some of our partners in the in the Indo Pacific region, as they deal with China?

Raymond Powell: 14:33

Well, you know, most of these partners are democracies, and they have to get elected in the next election. They are. You know, their horizons like ours, tend to be a little shorter term. They're worried about what their population thinks. Now, are they bringing them prosperity and security now? So you know, they've got some of the same problems

James Carouso: 14:54

we have. This gets into the all of nation effort. You. Uh, it can't just be a military effort. And the problem we have is China is by far the biggest trading partner for most of these countries, an increasingly important investor. So if we're going to raise trade barriers to make it even more difficult for these countries to export, make it more difficult perhaps, to invest in these countries, it's going to make it very difficult for them to make the political decision to side with us.

Jim Cardoso: 15:29

Yeah, and you know, you talk about the tariffs as well. I mean, I read that on as we are, not as record this, but as we publish this on the 20th I read that President Trump is going to declare the external revenue service, not the IRS, the ers, that will right away, start collecting those significant tariffs that he expects. So, I mean, I guess we'll see what that looks like.

Raymond Powell: 15:55

Yeah, I mean, so this goes back to, you know, things that Donald Trump says, and again, he is constantly in broadcast mode. And I had experiences, and I don't know Jim, had experiences where we would be confronted by our counterparts, our allies down there in Australia, and they said, What did he mean when he said this? And I would often say, wait 48 hours if nothing else happens, it didn't mean anything. It's a ship that passed in the night. So, you know, but you know, if you don't want him to talk about it again, then don't remind him of it. And if you don't want anything to become of it. And I also think that to some degree, you know, this is the art of the deal, right? This is these are negotiating tactics. He wants to he wants these other countries to take him seriously when he threatens tariffs. And so, you know, the external revenue service is one way to do that. And so what actually comes out of that? So again, we are used to a process whereby the United States national security process, you know, the State Department, the Defense Department, the Commerce Department, they come up with these proposals. They bubble up through the National Security Council. They're presented to the President. He says, Let's do that one. And then we sort of move out and we do roughly that one, whereas with Donald Trump, it's he thought about something. He says it people react. He's often riffs off the reactions. And then something else happens that may or may not be that, but it may be sort of that adjacent. It's just a different way to think about how all these things happen. Is one of those things that as people who were in that institution, those institutions, we are very uncomfortable with. And of course, it makes our allies and partners uncomfortable. But it's going to be the theme.

James Carouso: 17:40

Yeah, it's, I'll use a military term, as a civilian around here, he's preparing the battlefield,

Jim Cardoso: 17:47

operational prep of the battlefield. We call it OPB. Do you think that, look, this is a second Trump term, though. Do you think that there's a little bit more recognition that, even from our allies? Now, like you said, people that work closely would say, Okay, this is just the way it is. You wait for 48 hours. Our allies and partners in the Indo Pacific, are they? Do you think they'll understand that better too, to not freak out and just kind of see where things go after some particularly inauspicious pronouncement,

James Carouso: 18:19

I think we're already seeing that it's a little calmer this time than last time around.

Jim Cardoso: 18:25

Yeah, I agree. But he's not in the presidency yet, so I guess I don't know that that's what happens every 20th

Raymond Powell: 18:32

and the second movie will not be exactly like the first, right? It's the sequel. It's going to be different. And so, and there are, you know, Donald Trump himself learned things about what he wanted in this first term. And so I have a feeling there will be some things that come out that, you know, people may hope that will sort of go away, that don't go away because he sort of spent enough time thinking about them. But, you know, overall, the the process is going to be the same. And one of the things that will be true is leaders who figure out how to do personal diplomacy with Donald Trump himself will be more successful. You know, if you have leaders who worry about his mannerisms and his style and the things that he says and and tweets and all of those kinds of things, those leaders might end up stumbling, whereas kind of savvy leaders. The classic example in the Indo Pacific was Shinzo Abe, who seemed to have figured him out, really from the beginning, and knew how to talk to him and knew how to carry out that personal diplomacy, and enjoyed a great relationship with Donald Trump.

James Carouso: 19:38

So we had on our podcast Malcolm Turnbull, who was president when Trump was elected prime minister. And you may recall the first conversation they had was terrible. Trump, Trump told Turnbull that this was the worst conversation I've had all day. And so there was a lot of concern. You know. How's the relationship going to go? But they actually ended up working really well together, because, as Turnbull said, You got to stand up to Trump sometimes and form the relationship. And he's actually really quick to forgive disagreement, because that's what he does. He foments disagreement, but as long as you negotiate with him sort of straightforwardly he can come to an agreement. Yeah,

Raymond Powell: 20:27

another Jim, another conversation I remember in this, in this sense, was our chat with HR McMaster, who, of course, was Trump's National Security Advisor for a year. And part of one of his pieces of advice, I thought was really clever was, you know, people should just get over it. You know, you're not going to change him. He's not going to become a different person because you said the right thing to him. Just recognize that that's who he is and figure it out. Because, I mean, he's been 80 years in the making, almost. He's, he is who he is. Yep,

Jim Cardoso: 20:57

it's probably just best to understand the operational environment you're working in. There's no question about that. You know, Ray, you spent, I know you spent a lot of time. And as we led up to this about, you know, your expertise, and just thinking about the South China Sea, and I led off this episode talking about one specific instance of that type of tension that's going on in the South China Sea. How? How could, I mean, I don't see these things going away. It's only going to continue, most likely. How are these tensions going to cause challenges for the administration?

Raymond Powell: 21:32

Well, I think it starts by understanding that China is a, fundamentally, the way that they're looking at the world. They are an expansionist state. They believe that they that their status, that their history, has earned them a larger sphere of influence and the US led world order that emerged after World War Two. Kind of happened to China at a time when China was historically weak, but now China is historically strong, and it's time for China to expand into its natural sphere of influence. And they look at the United States, with our big two oceans on either side, and the Gulf of Mexico, or Gulf of America, whatever we're calling it today, and the Monroe Doctrine and all of these things, and they say it's it's just fair, it's just right. You know, you get yours. We get ours. Were the two great powers. And so what the what doesn't belong here is the United States doesn't belong in China's sphere of influence. Well, China looks abroad, and they say, See South Korea, Japan, the Philippines. They see all of these us, allies and partners. And they say, the US needs to get out of this. We call that the first island chain, that chain that goes from the Korean Peninsula all the way around to Singapore and China feels hemmed in by that, because they look out and they see America all over the place, and so their agenda is to push us out, and the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait is where that starts. So what we often call these gray zone activities, these these opaque and deniable activities that China is still, to this day, to this moment, carrying out in spades, not only in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, but elsewhere. They are, they are the primary weapon that China is using. China, I truly believe, does not want to go to war with the United States. They want these countries. They want, to some degree, the United States itself and its partners and allies to yield space and to all in some, in some cases, completely capitulate. If you're talking about Taiwan or the Philippines in the West Philippine Sea, short of war. So, you know. And so that is what is happening right now, even as we're talking,

Jim Cardoso: 23:50

yeah, I mean, but I mean, I don't you. I don't think any of us here perceive that you use the word capitulate. I don't see any of us seeing the Trump administration capitulating on anything over the next four years, and it's, you know, most likely not in the US is national interest to do so. So where, where is

Raymond Powell: 24:06

sure. But if, what? If Taiwan capitulates, if the Philippines capitulates, if Japan begins to yield space, you know, if you know, Malaysia is already kind of capitulating in some ways, you know. So if it, we can get pushed out of the of the South China Sea. We can get pushed out of East Asia in a lot of ways that give China a much freer hand. And by the way, expansionist state aren't states are never satisfied. I mean, you can go back through history, it's not they don't get to a point where they go. I guess we've got enough

Jim Cardoso: 24:39

now, that's true. The old, the British the sun never sets on the British Empire, you know, back from from those days as well. You know, Jim, when we spoke and prepped for this episode, I erroneously use the term in Indo PACOM, as we were discussing in the title of your podcast, and you very quickly and rightfully corrected me that, no, it's not indo PACOM, it's Indo Pacific. And. End that emphasis on using all aspects of national national strategy and national power in the Indo Pacific, and not just military. Can you and you touched on that before? Can you talk a little bit more about that

James Carouso: 25:15

importance of that sure, you know us, soft power, which is sometimes debated, is still an amazing thing. Students don't particularly want to go study in China. They want to come here. Entrepreneurs don't go sub companies in China. They come here. Our culture, with apologies to K Pop, is still pretty popular in the region, and this idea of America as a place where anything is possible is really powerful. But if we are seen as closing those avenues off of becoming turning our back on the world and basically indicating this is all ours, and really we're not welcoming you anymore, what choice do these countries have? And not only that, but you know, like, like a spurned lover, in a sense, they're going to get angry. So we need to say, look, we want to work with your scientists and your businesses and your traders and your exporters and help you develop so you could become richer and more secure and better able to diversify your economy away from China, and frankly, both in the Biden administration and the previous Trump administration by pulling out TPP and Trans Pacific Partnership especially, and not replacing it with anything. That's a problem.

Jim Cardoso: 26:36

Yeah, do you think that? I mean, do you foresee again? It's one of those things that what President Trump says and what he does can be sometimes two different things. Some of the indications are exactly what you said. And you know, there is a level of closing our backs on the world and putting up tariffs, putting up greater barriers for immigration. Is that what you perceive as maybe that's where the world will see you then hear that even if these things don't come fully to fruition as as advertised, it'll still create a psychology by which turning to China makes more sense.

James Carouso: 27:09

Well, it could do when, when we were in Australia, Graham and I, and I was charged, and there was the Muslim travel ban, and we had a case where a kid who was a Iranian background and had dual citizenship had been made to NASA camp, and this was his dream, right? Every little kid who's besides wants to go to NASA camp, and he was prohibited. So this 14 year old kid, and of course, what's in the news that yes, and it's hard to control, a narrative that says the US is closed to aspiring young scientists because of their religion. Now, are we going to see that sort of thing again? I don't know.

Jim Cardoso: 27:51

So, and you know, I'm just respectful of times. I know, Jim, you do have to go, but I guess I would say so. How can the Trump administration be successful across the diplomatic, informational, military, economic spectrum over the next four years. And that's a question for both you, what you think?

Raymond Powell: 28:10

Well, I guess I would start by I mean, so Donald Trump himself is not going to decide all these things, right? He has things that he is interested in, and he has things that his people are interested in, and those are often different but complementary. And so a lot of the things we found during the first Trump administrations did not necessarily come out, directly out of the Oval Office. And again, the first Trump administration did do some things that were pretty bold and at times necessary. So for example, the the idea that the US could move its the capital, and this is not in the Indo Pacific, but the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, among many of the people who had done this for a very long time. It was, it was believed that that was kind of impossible, that it would cause a conflagration. In the end, it was kind of a nothing burger. It just kind of happened. And so there are opportunities out there for somebody who is a different kind of thinker and surrounded by different kinds of thinkers to do new things. I'm out with an article today in the dispatch. One of the things that I talk about in the article is we should talk to the Philippines about exploring for natural gas at reed bank, which is within China's nine dash line, but certainly within the the which is what China claims, but certainly within the Philippines rights under international law to do, we should go and visit them at some of their island outposts. There will be people who will say, you know, that was too provocative. That will make other countries upset. But you know what? Sometimes you just have to kind of take the hit and do the thing that changes the narrative and says, No, America is not going away. You can't just push us out. And it's not the inevitable tide of history that's going to result in China owning all this and the US retreating back to our borders and. So I think that you know, just by looking at problems a little bit differently and not sort of just accepting all of the conventional wisdom, the Trump administration may have a chance, the chance to do some new things.

James Carouso: 30:12

Jim, anything to add to that. Well, you know, the mantra overseas during Trump one was America first does not mean America alone. So if we can live up to that, and yeah, we can push for increased defense spending and reducing their trade deficits. But if we do it in partnership, and say, let's work together on these things and do some of the things, like raise indicated, you know, I think they'll respect our own desires to write some imbalances, as long as it's not seen as holding a gun to their heads and saying, where else?

Jim Cardoso: 30:48

Yeah, you know, I think, like you said, the first administration, it, the rhetoric sounded that way, but the reality, a lot of times, was very different. So I guess we'll see. You've given some, I mean, some great thoughts on how the Trump administration can be successful. But before we close out, I don't want to give you a little time to talk about you have, like we said, your own podcast, which you started in April. You're 50 episodes into it, I believe last I checked, but go ahead and brag on yourselves a little bit on your podcast and what you're doing and what you got coming up. Well,

Raymond Powell: 31:19

this has been a labor of love for Gemini. We started this, as you said, in April. We started, in part because we knew so many of these really, really interesting people who were very important practitioners in the Indo Pacific space, very original thinkers. And we wanted to talk to them, and we wanted to see what they thought about some of the emerging problems. And we thought, by the way, the question of, why should we care, which is where we sort of focus, why should we in the West, in America and wherever we are? Why should we care about these topics? We thought those were really important to bring out. And so it's it's been successful. We are continue to get some more and more impressive guests with important guests. As Jim mentioned, we have a former prime minister. We just had a sitting Ambassador Japan, Rahm Emanuel. We have had former Trump administration officials. We expect to get some former Biden administration officials in just the next few days since we've got a transition coming on, people who we have had the privilege of being in contact with through our travels, and we look forward to talking to even more of

Jim Cardoso: 32:26

them. Yeah, I listened to a few episodes, and I could tell there was a there was a familiarity with each other in that came out through the episode as well, that, you know, there wasn't the first time you were meeting them, and that was a that really made for it's a good conversation, and it's worth listening to. And I think, you know, from my perspective, you know, when people, when you say indo pakm, they go, yeah, China. And you, you rightfully said, China is kind of the 800 pound gorilla in the conversation. But, man, there's a lot of nuances there as well. And you know the fact that the Chinese rammed a Filipino, you know, Coast Guard vessel should have been huge news, and the Democratic National Convention sort of stole the headlines and, and so there's a lot going on there. So I think that I would tell people, you know, you should have two podcasts on your podcast player. You should have, of course, at the boundary, but right next to it, you should have, why should we care what goes on the Indo Pacific as we close out the podcast, I guess I'll turn it over to you gentlemen, Ray and then Jim, any closing thoughts well,

Raymond Powell: 33:28

so again, thank thanks so much for doing this. This is a this has been a tremendous conversation. I just urge people, you know, when you're thinking about where things are going in these hot wars in in the Middle East, in Europe, realize that there is a gray zone war happening now in the Indo Pacific, and the consequences have actually been probably even more consequential. In a lot of ways. We have become used to a level of aggression in the Indo Pacific that we would not tolerate in other places, and yet, we've just been conditioned to tolerate it, and that is playing directly into the aggressors hands, so it is important to care.

Jim Cardoso: 34:13

Thanks, right, Jim,

James Carouso: 34:15

yeah, I'm on the board of something called the Tucson Committee on Foreign Relations, and when I joined, I was pitching discussions of Indo Pacific, and someone said to me, Well, why should I care about the Indo Pacific? And this was after COVID and supply chains, disruptions and all that's going on with China in general. And I couldn't believe it. The world is a small, interconnected place, a bottom line, and we're never going to get away into some sort of Neo isolationism. And if we're going to be a great power, which we are, we're going to have to care about the place. That's

Jim Cardoso: 34:49

a great closing statement. That was, I echo you Ray, this is a really enjoyable conversation. I've learned a lot out of it, as I always do from these podcast episodes. And I. I just want to say, Ray Powell, Jim Caruso, good luck on your podcast. I'll be listening for sure to continue to increase my knowledge about why I should care about the Indo Pacific, and I look forward to seeing how the Trump administration unfolds with some of the discussions and quasi predictions that you gentlemen have made here. I want to thank you both for your time. Thanks, Jim. I want to thank our special guests today, Ray Powell and Jim Caruso, host of the podcast, why should we care about the Indo Pacific? They walked us through why that region of the world should be a high priority for the new Trump administration as he moves forward into a second term. We'll drop a link to their podcast into the Episode notes and recommend you subscribe and follow them there next week on at the boundary, we're bringing back Caitlin Lee from RAND Corporation and one of the world's foremost experts on drones. We're going to talk a little bit about those mystery drones over New Jersey. What are they? Are they everywhere? How concerned should we be? Caitlin will also be a special guest at GNSI tampid summit five in March, and we'll do a little preview of our conference panel, which focuses on drones in Russia, Ukraine war and what the world has learned from that. I'm looking forward to that conversation. We hope you'll join us. Thanks for listening today. If you like the podcast, please share with your colleagues and network. You can follow GNSI on our LinkedIn and X accounts at USF, underscore GNSI, and check out our website as well, at usf.edu/gnsi, where you can also subscribe to our monthly newsletter that's going to wrap up this episode of at the boundary. Each new episode will feature global and national security issues we found to be insightful, intriguing, fascinating, maybe controversial, but overall, just worth talking about. I'm Jim Cardoso, and we'll see yo u at the boundary.