What's Next for Venezuela?

In this episode of "At the Boundary," GNSI's Jim Cardoso and guests Dr. Rob Burrell and Dr. Homer Harkins discuss the complex history and current state of Venezuela. They delve into the country's socio-economic evolution, from oil exploitation to democratic transition, and the rise and fall of political leaders like Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro. They detail the recent military operation that removed Maduro, highlighting the use of advanced technology and multi-domain tactics. The discussion also covers potential democratic transitions, the role of the U.S., and the importance of international support, emphasizing the need for a long-term, unbiased understanding of Venezuela's situation.

Links from the episode:

Rob Burrell on Substack

St. Petersburg Conference on World Affairs Outer Space: International Collaboration and Competition

"What Happens if Donald Trump Bombs Iran?" article by Dr. Arman Mahmoudian

GNSI Tampa Summit 6: Cracks in the Lamp - Freeing the Nuclear Genie

Other noteworthy links:

Caracas Chronicles

Maria Corina Machado on X

At the Boundary from the Global and National Security Institute at the University of South Florida, features global and national security issues we’ve found to be insightful, intriguing, fascinating, maybe controversial, but overall just worth talking about.

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Transcript

At the Boundary (EP 113 Robert Burrell, PhD; Homer Harkins, EdD)

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SUMMARY KEYWORDS

Venezuela, US actions, Hugo Chavez, Maduro regime, military coup, oil exploitation, democracy, economic decline, social programs, communism, US sanctions, military intervention, democratic transition, Maria Karina Machado, US foreign policy.

SPEAKERS

Jim Cardoso, Dr. Homer Harkins, Dr. Rob Burrell

Jim Cardoso  00:00

Jim, hello everyone. Welcome to this week's episode of at the boundary, the podcast from the global and national security Institute at the University of South Florida. I'm Jim Cardoso, Senior Director for GNSI, and your host for at the boundary. It's great to be back in the podcast seat as we kick off 2026 and another year of exploring national security issues, giving you an inside look at those issues and maybe some additional insight or perspective to consider. Today on the podcast, we're kicking things off with one of the hottest topics around the globe, Venezuela. We just so happen to have one of the world's foremost experts on Venezuela, notably regarding resilience and resistance within intrastate conflict. Just down the hall, Dr Rob Burrell, senior research fellow here at GNSI. Also joining us today from the United Arab Emirates is Dr Homer Harkins, who spent 10 years at the Joint Special Operations University here in Tampa and is currently a military education mentor at the UAE War College. Rob and Homer collaborate on much of their Venezuela work producing some of the best research and insight on that country's situation. This is actually the second time they've been on the podcast, as they were guests on ATB in September of 2024 also to discuss Venezuela. But a lot has changed since then. Rob Burrell, Homer Harkins, welcome to at the boundary. Great to have you here today. Thanks, Jim he here start with you, Homer, US actions in Venezuela, their aftermath and what the future might hold. It's pretty much dominated the recent news cycle, and you two have been tracking events in Venezuela for years, well before it became the Trump administration's and really the media's focus as well. So Homer, can you describe the background of how this confrontation between the US and Venezuela built up?

Dr. Homer Harkins  02:09

I can now. I My disadvantage is I'm intimately involved, and so I've got to package a lot of information in a short period of time. I think you have to understand a little history to understand where we are. And I would go back, really, it may seem a lot, but 100 years into, really, when oil began to be a big thing in Venezuela. And you can see that era in kind of three phases, and I would see them as the first phase was the phase of oil exploitation. It lasted about 40 years, from 1920 to 1960s and 1960 It was a period of unbelievable socio economic growth. So I mean literally we are. We're talking about going from a very poor Latin American country to, by some accounts, the third wealthiest country in the world per capita income. It was spectacularly successful. The problem was, this was done under a military dictatorship. And while that military dictatorship actually helped kind of minimize the corruption and such and maximize the growth, it also led to a lot of frustration. And as the country began to prosper, an intelligentsia emerged that really asked, if we're going to be so wealthy and successful, why can't we be part of the first world? I mean, we were stuck in the Third World, and this is back in when the first world, second world, third world was a thing, and why we're stuck in this third to be a first world country, we really need to be a democracy. And a lot of very brave young men put everything they had online. Some of them ended up in prison, some ended up dead, but they were able to bring democracy to Venezuela. Excuse me. So then you enter the next stage, from 1960 to about 2000 where democracy really entered into the country. Now, unfortunately, this also was a period of time where the growth began to to to become slower. It began to start to stagnate, you could argue why. I do think a lot of the economic decisions that were made may have been a little bit off. There's a lot of imports subject to economics where they use the money to kind of harvest internal manufacturing. It was very kind of inefficient. And as they return to the rule of law, now you've got due process, and if you want to convict somebody for corruption, try to take them to court, right? You can't in the under the dictatorship, you just make the problem go away. Under this, it became an issue, and. I would say that the actual the corruption exploded so as kind of kind of economic inefficiency, layering with us all this corruption, you started to see a lot of social frustration, and it kind of came to a head in on the 18th of February 1983 where the decision was made to let the Bolivar, the currency of Venezuela, flow, and overnight it lost half of its value. Now that that seems nothing to you and me, but imagine if every American lost one half of their value overnight. What? What the implications of that would be now for us, we would think, Okay, we'll bounce back, right? You know, the 2008 meltdown, it didn't bounce back. It went the bully bar. Went from four 4.3 bolivars to the dollar to by the end of the Democratic phase, it was 500 bully bars to the dollar. It just kept getting worse and worse and worse. So into this kind of socio economic decline steps a figure by the name of Hugo Chavez, and he was a very young, very intelligent, very charismatic army officer high in his class, recognized for his intellect, who happened to also, by the way, be a dedicated communist. Now you can be a dedicated communist in Venezuela because it was the rule of law and such and free speech and political thought. The military knew about him, and he began to organize this thing called moving me into holy Mariano Luciano. And it was kind of a clandestine organization within the military where he tried to bring in people who were dissatisfied with the way things were going, and organize them into a classic political movement, social movement. And he said, by the culmination point, he had over 10% of the military who were members of this group. And in 1992 they launched a good old fashioned military coup. It failed miserably, and unfortunately, about 25 young conscript soldiers were killed, and another 50 were wounded, and many of them crippled for life. But a statement was made, and even though he and his co conspirators ended up going to prison, and we're looking forward to 30 years in prison follow on. Politicians kind of use this, as they say, Well, you know, we understand there are problems in Venezuela. We need to solve these problems, these young men they met well, and so overnight, Hugo Chavez goes from a guy looking at 30 years in prison to a Robin Hood figure, and six years later he's out of prison, he's elected the president of Venezuela. And then we kind of entered the third stage, and that was the stage of communism. It started about the year 2000 went to about 2020 and now at this time, by either devil's luck or, some would say, good strategic planning, oil took off. When Chavez took office, oil was $10 a bear. Within a decade, it was up to $100 a bear. So there was a lot of money being made by oil, okay? And that's the life blood in some ways, in Venezuela. And so Chavez was able to use this money to do a couple of things. One to kind of reinstate social programs to buy loyalty, but he was also able to use it to force the private sector to basically take deals they could not refuse. I mean, they literally were going into companies and saying, we're going to buy your company. Here's the price. Would you like to take it or not? And most of them took the money and left the country. And so dual hat one, they created all these social programs, spent all the money, and they also collapsed the economy, right? And then double block, Hugo Chavez dies of cancer, and on the way out, he puts in power this guy named Maduro, who was a really hardcore communist, and the money runs out. So, so now we're kind of at a point where you really the communists are consolidating power, there's increasing repression, and there's also socioeconomic catastrophe, and it reached the point where people don't realize that between 2017 and 2020 they were actually 320. 20, there were actually three coup attempts to try to remove the Maduro regime by military officers and so but it just couldn't be done, and a lot of this was because Cuba had stepped in, and we saw in the raid the other night that he was at Maduro was protected by communists, or he was by the Cubans, and so this was the apparatus that was keeping them in power. So now I would say, as far as the US reaction to to Chavez, first of all, we had great relations with Venezuela throughout the first. Phase throughout the period of oil exploitation, it was kind of mutually beneficial. The period of democratization, we were uncomfortable with Chavez being elected, but we were what we wanted to support the democratic process. So initially, we were very supportive of Chavez initially, but things began to bubble up. There was a he was basically forced out of power in 2002 after he'd been powered about four years. Kind of a keystone cop type scenario. He's within, he's back within three days. And it kind of turned into a disaster for the opposition. And at that point, Chavez really went in hard with the Cubans is I need your help. I can't pull this off without your help. And you started to see kind of repression, digging in and consolidating power. Meanwhile, the oil prices are collapsing. Chavez dies, right? And you started to see kind of a return to mass poverty, because as the oil money ran out and you killed the economy, what do you got left? You got nothing left. And now we reached a point where, literally, by 2020, we've got failed state upwards. Some people say a third of Venezuelans have left the country. I mean, that's how bad it is. And you think most of that third are the people with the brains and the courage to actually make the country work. So what you got left is is not, as we say, quality human resource. So I think again. So I we, as the repression increase, we started to do selective sanctions, right, selectively, sanctioning individuals.

Dr. Homer Harkins  11:44

But then in the third phase, really, I think we started to see Chavez consolidate power, our Maduro, I'm sorry, consolidate power. And then we had the 2024 election, where it was obvious that Maduro lost, and all the facade of elections went away, Amador just became a dictator, and now we ended the fourth phase, and that was we got to get rid of this guy. And that kind of culminated on the third of January with his with his remove so and i So, I think that's kind of the history of how we got here. I know it's kind of a history lesson, and that's a lot, but you can understand how it went through this kind of phase of success, and then this kind of slow demise, and then it fell into catastrophe and dictatorship, and we reached a point where something had to be done. And action was taken, and

Jim Cardoso  12:44

action was taken, you know. And really appreciate that, because I think a lot of people who, you know, who have been watching this and have been taking in the recent media reports, they you know, they don't know that history. They don't know what's happened in the long term, which could set the condition so that something like this would would make sense as a next follow on step. So with that history lesson in mind, which is that background of mine, now let's, let's go to the let's, let's move to the present now and you spend time on the ground, you you understand the military situation in Venezuela better than most. So you know, while the global public has read and heard a lot about the military option on January 3, you could probably provide additional perspectives and even bring to bear some of the things, some of the actions that have been under reported. If you could talk to that a little

Dr. Homer Harkins  13:37

bit, I, I will try. I will say that I'm, of course, I've been out of the service now for 25 years. The technology has advanced immensely. So I'm on the outside looking in with a lot of the stuff that happened. And I do monitor that. I teach at the War College here in the UAE, and so I say, Try closely monitor this kind of stuff. And I think probably the most impressive part of all of this was the information preparation from a variety of perspectives. First, it seems that somehow we were able to get incredible information on maduro's pattern of life. We were able to to, basically determine their access denial architecture and how it worked, and disrupt that, I think we used in some very modern technology to do that, we were somehow able to get a lot of information on where Maduro probably stayed in his residence. There's a little bit of talk about how he moved around. I don't think that's the case. I'm speculating here, but I think he slept in the same place every night, basically because he had multiple rings of security. He figured with the most secure place for me to be is right here, and I. I tried to find the compound that you see in the visuals. It did not exist when I left the country back in 2002 all that is new infrastructure. And so I think it was specifically built to protect the head of state. So he figured that was the place for him to be. Now I when the time came to execute, I think this was kind of, in many ways, our first truly multi domain special operation where we use cyber and we use space, we use air, we use to basically disrupt the command and control capability of the Venezuelans. And when we talk about the lack of reaction, I think it's because we so effectively took out the cell phones. We pick up the internet, we selectively took out in electricity in the zone of action. I do believe there is kinetic strikes. Well, I saw some of the hits. I believe they took out their central command operation center and the Ministry of Defense. So there was some kinetic strike, but cumulatively, they basically blinded the Venezuelans. There was no ability to operationally react. And then when they actually kind of hit the ground and the assault force went in. All they had to worry about was local reaction we saw, for example, some some barracks taken out. It looks like those were where the Cubans slept, the Cuban reaction force. So it was hit hard, so the ability to tactically react was was robbed from the very beginning, and then we talked about the infiltration with about a dozen helicopters. They, they say, from the time they hit the ground about, I suspect there were maybe 80 operators backed by law enforcement, because it was a legal it was a legal issue. So you wanted law and that was probably the hostage rescue team from the FBI. They were within three minutes of landing in the helicopters. They were already in maduro's bedroom, so that's what they say. So they knew exactly where they were going, and within five minutes, he was on a helicopter with his wife. There was probably some sense inside exploitation for, you know, computers and that kind of thing. So, but within 30 minutes, everybody was gone, excuse me, and they're on the way out of the country. So it was an incredibly successful example of a modern Special Operations direct action mission,

Jim Cardoso  17:46

yeah, I think from a, yeah, I'm sorry, yeah. From a, from a, kind of a infiltration raid point of view, the tactics of it were appear to be stunningly successful. And I, you know, I was a in my career, I was a special ops guy most in my career on the Air Force side. And I know that the raid in Sante, in the in the, you know, decades ago, is something that was studied and learn since learned from that for years after that. And I have a I got a sense that this is going to be something they're really going to pull the lessons learned in in this new, modern way, emphasizing, like you said, all the multi domain aspects, using space, cyber, all the capabilities they had to, like said, effectively blind them so they could achieve a level of tactical surprise, even as they strategically built up forces in the region for for weeks.

Dr. Homer Harkins  18:34

I do think that a lot of a force build up was diversion. I think there was, it was, as we call, you know, fdos, ways of trying to discourage and motivate action. I really believe that Trump wanted the guy to leave the country. We hear reports of him being offered asylum in Russia or whatever. I think that that's what Trump wanted to do. He wanted to get the guy to leave the country. But there are a lot of other reports that the guy just really isn't the brightest bulb in the box. I mean, he's he's not a smart guy, and I just don't think he realized what he was up against. And I don't think Cubans wanted to go. I think that he probably in the back of his mind was wondering what might happen to him if the Cubans realized that he was leaving. So those options were kind of kind of closed off.

Jim Cardoso  19:36

Probably got it, yeah, hey, Rob, let's bring you in now. So, you know, looking forward, beyond speculation about, you know, the Trump administration's designs for future us Venezuela relations. What happens inside Venezuela in terms of potential democratic transition? It's a key area of commentary now in the media. What do you see happening? From here, what might that democratic transition look like?

Dr. Rob Burrell  20:03

Well, it's just gonna have to be a little bit of speculation here, because it's a very dynamic situation. I think the remaining Chavista regime is split into two main camps right now. The first is delsi Rodriguez, who is the interim president. She has solidified her support with her brother Jorge Rodriguez, who is now the president of the National Assembly. So she's trying to hedge her support there, but she doesn't have control over the mechanisms of security. Adriana Lopez is a defense minister, still and responsible for the military, and diastado cabello is their interior interior minister. He is probably the most nefarious of all the characters. He controls the collectivos and has his hands into a lot of illicit activities. But the Rodriguez coalition, delsi and her brother do not have bounties on their head, whereas Lopez and cabello do, and so there's going to be a struggle there between delce Rodriguez ability to move towards open elections or move towards a transition into democracy. Well, where Lopez and cabello are going to fear that greatly, because, you know, they're they're going to, they're going to pay the consequences once that happens. Joseph Rodriguez is not a popular figure in the country, by the way, and you know, perhaps that will change, but she had a large hand in suppression, suppressing voters and suppressing the move towards democracy. But she appears to be making some concessions. She recently agreed to allowing the political the folks have been, folks have been detained and put in prison for political reasons. They're going to be released from prison. It's a good move, and we'll see how far it will move forward in this transition. You know, the huge leverage for the United States is the maritime exclusion zone, which they're going to maintain. And the other part of that, you know, that's the stick, the carrot is that Trump, recently is talking about $100 billion of investment. So that 100 billion dollars of investment into the oil and structure will require a stable and Representative regime. It won't come before that, because these corporations don't make those type of decisions unless they know their investment has a return. So those are the carrot and sticks that are being used moving forward. I think the long term solution is Maria Karina Machado and having a representative democratic government. But how that transition occurs and over what timeframe, I think is still to be determined,

Jim Cardoso  23:18

well, and you know, just in a few hours where he recorded this podcast, President Trump indicated he was looking to meet with with Maria Karina Machado, even though previously he kind of showed up, not as much interest in meeting with her. What do you make of that?

Dr. Rob Burrell  23:32

Well, I think Trump is a pragmatist, where a lot of Americans are idealist. So, you know, there are a lot of on some of the news channels already asking. In fact, they were asking Marco Rubio, you know, when's the elections gonna happen? And he's like, they just happened in 2024 What do you expect? Like, there's gonna be elections tomorrow? Like, this is gonna take some time. The current strategy. And actually, I breathe the sigh of relief when del C Rodriguez took the helm, and we've lived this for 20 years, during the when there's a power vacuum, there's a lot of instability that can occur, right? So who's going to provide physical security and maintain some type of assemblance of calm when Maduro is removed from power, and right now, that's Delia Rodriguez, and she's she's been able to work with Adriana Lopez and this idea cabello to maintain control of security in the near term, and that's very important. Maria Karen Machado didn't have those levers. She doesn't have control over the military. She doesn't have control over the collectivos or any anyone who has a firearm. She she's a non violent resistance leader, so she doesn't have those control measures. And so there has to be a transition that occurs. So.

Jim Cardoso  25:00

What are the most important factors in the next few months to watch for? You know, this can either be from the official administration point of view or are also from that of of an American public continue to track developments regarding Venezuela and the media. What? What do you see as those factors?

Dr. Rob Burrell  25:15

I think there's seven factors, and I hate throwing seven out there. So people you know already are like, Oh my gosh, this is, this is too complicated, but I think there's, there's seven factors. One is, what are the US demands, and is the regime adhering to them? That's important to consider, because things could change. You know, the regime might become entrenched in and defy us demand. So that's that's important. The second is, can the can the administration maintain US domestic support for this intervention? And I think this is probably the most important of all the seven factors is, does the US, domestic audience support US foreign policy and regarding Venezuela right now, it's about a third who support what happened, about a third oppose it, and about a third are still trying to figure things out to see what what they support and what they don't. And that, you know, that's that's probably a fairly good estimate of US domestic support. But is US domestic support going to continue this over the long term? And I think this is going to be over multiple administration, so it's going to go past the Trump administration. And are we going to continue on this thread to support democracy? Democracy, you know, the word I'm trying to say in Venezuela,

Jim Cardoso  26:44

I got you audiences, they're hanging on every word. The third

Dr. Rob Burrell  26:49

thing is, how are the rival factions in the remaining Chavista regime interacting? I mentioned two kind of factions that are currently interacting. There's probably a lot more factors to consider. There are 2000 generals, that's crazy, but there's 2000 flag officers within the military, because they've all been political assignments to maintain control. How are those how are those folks reacting? And then you have the collectivos, which are these militias on the street? You know, they're the ones who have instill fear in the local population. They have something to lose in democracy, right? Because they're getting money from the regime to maintain that fear. And if that money stops, that stops their bread and butter. So that's something else to look at as we as as these changes occur. The fourth thing is, what is the opposition doing? You know, right now, Brenda Machado is meeting with Trump. It looks like next week. So she's maintaining her connections and support for transition, and also to ensure that that support goes towards democratization. You know, she, she wants to make sure that that happens. Edmondo Gonzalez is still in Spain, and so, you know, when will Machado or Gonzalez return? Those are big questions and things to really keep an eye on the fifth is, what is the United Nations going to do? You know, United Nations already had a meeting. They had an emergency council that was called by the monthly president, which was Somalia. And you had, you know, the adversaries of the US show up in, chime in, you know, like China and Russia saying, saying, you know, this is against the rule of law. There's a lot of hypocrisy there. You know, that's really just an hypocrisy. And then Cuba had to speak twice. They couldn't have enough to say, and they actually mentioned the oil thing. So that's important to them. But you know, there was not this huge change in the United Nations against the US that didn't occur. And then what? How the nations in the Western Hemisphere, how did they react? You mentioned that Mexico and Colombia called a meeting of the Organization of American States. It did not work out in their favor. So Mexico, Colombia and Brazil pretty much stood alone. Those are all three leftist regimes. They pretty much stood alone while the rest of the American states sided with the administration and sided with taking action to remove a dictator who was destabilizing for the region and particularly for these countries. You know, with all the transnational criminal activity and having them having sanctuary in Venezuela, it's making it very difficult to govern for all these smaller states. And so they were very supportive of what happened. And then, you know, the last thing to look at are the non state actors. You know, you mentioned the FARC and Eln. You've got trend Aragua. You. Got two major Mexican cartels that operate out of Venezuela. How do they react to this? Like adept non state actors? I think they will. They will adeptly move with the situation, right? They may even move out of the region. But you know, Maduro didn't control the hinterlands either. These folks have been operating there for a long time, but do they do they put up a resistance to a new regime that emerges? Or do they just try to, you know, stay in, stay in a shadow world that remains to be seen. But there are non state actors that we should be paying attention to. So those are the seven factors.

Jim Cardoso  30:42

Look, some level of stability is better than no stability whatsoever. So, and it's, it's a long term thing, you know, me, people may not want to hear that, you know, but yeah, these, these things don't happen overnight, and recovery doesn't happen overnight either. So as a homer laid out, it was a, you know, 100 year history there. So, you know, action that addresses that is not gonna, is not gonna take, take effect overnight. You know, we could we could we could talk about this for hours. We try to at the boundary 10. We try to keep it about a 30 some odd minute podcast. I'm gonna stick with that. Now I will say to the audience listening that these two gentlemen are writing a lot on substack and in different areas about this topic. I would like to end with one question, and that's for both you, and that's the fact we stay apolitical here on at the boundary. But there's no question that the political partisanship, it deeply affects the reporting of current events, as well as the reaction for America. So you have the opportunity. What would you say to people that are seeking to in seeking to in a politically unbiased fashion, understand the current situation in Venezuela, the history behind it and what we can expect in the future. What would you say to them? So Homer, I'll start with you.

Dr. Homer Harkins  32:04

I would say go online and look up a group called Caracas Chronicles. I've been monitoring their information feed for 25 years, and they are Venezuelans. Some of them are expats out of the country for political reasons, but they provide incredible insight into what's actually going on. So I would say, and I don't, I don't own stock in Caracas Chronicles. I don't, I'm just saying I think they're good. So if you want to know what's going on from a fair and balanced way, look up Caracas Chronicles and and give them a couple of bucks each month and and they give they'll give you incredible insight into what's actually going on. Now, that's excellent.

Jim Cardoso  32:49

I'll be honest, I haven't heard of them, and that's an excellent lead. It's a Caracas Chronicles. Maybe we'll find that, and maybe we stick a stick a link in the show notes as well for people listening to this podcast so they can find that. Thank you so much, Rob. What would you say?

Dr. Rob Burrell  33:01

Well, I think it's true that the domestic audience in the US is taking this international issue to energize their base on domestic affairs. That's not unique. Colombia is doing the same thing they have elections in March. So it's kind of a shit. I think it's a shame, as you mentioned, Homer and I have been covering this for a long time. We we are firm believers in a free, democratic and prosperous Venezuela in the future. If you want to pay attention to Venezuela and what Venezuelans think I would look at Maria Corrina Machado channel on X she routinely publishes things having, you know, and I study resistance, that's what I do. But having a unifying and competent resistance leader like Maria cranny Machado is quite, quite rare. Resistances don't normally emerge with this unifying figure. I mean, she is a real gem, and she's the strength of the opposition. She essentially has all the support of the 9 million Venezuelans in the diaspora. She's got 80% of the support is what's estimated of Venezuelans in the country. She's garnered support internationally from the European Union and the United States. She's very inspiring. She inspires me every time I listen to something, she has to say, she's amazing. And so I think she gives a real chance of hope. I mean, there's, there's a lot of folks who, who are, I guess, that they've lost hope. They just don't think that that this is going to end up well for Venezuela. And I think if you pay attention to Maria Kearney Machado, you listen to what she has to say, she's very inspiring. And I think as long as she's around, there is a huge chance here for. Democracy. I think, I think there's, there's over 50% chance that this will work out really, really well for Venezuela. And so I would hope that every American, no matter what side of the aisle you're on, could unify on that, on that idea that this turns out well for Venezuela. I hope no one's cheering that Venezuela fails, so that supports their narrative on Trump's

Jim Cardoso  35:24

I would like to hope for that too, yeah, but it's a we live in a very politically charged environment. No question about that. And Rob, I know that give you an opportunity for I know you're not a self promoter, and I admire that about you, but give you a little opportunity to promote. I know you do a sub stack channel that you think you collaborated a lot with Homer on that sub stack channel as well, and some of your recent writings have covered that. I want to talk a little bit about that for the audience, so they know where to go for that.

Dr. Rob Burrell  35:50

Or you can check out our sub stack, our resistance newsletter, which is it? Robert Burrell, sub stack, you know, Homer and I have been writing about this for a few years, and I counted them. I think there's like 3030, publications we've had on Venezuela. We've got a J Sal interview that will come out next week, the Special Operations at university where I'll talk on YouTube about Venezuela. And so, yeah, there's, there's more, more and exciting news coming out. In fact, I've got a podcast tomorrow as well on Venezuela. But if you look at, look me on LinkedIn, you'll I'll be, I'll be putting out the different events that happen both Homer and I have that podcast tomorrow. So very exciting times, and I really appreciate anyone who pays attention to Venezuela, because Homer and I have been jumping up and down on the table for a couple of years trying to get people to pay attention. So I hope it keeps the Americans interest for more than a few minutes.

Jim Cardoso  36:56

Yeah, I agree with that, and I hopefully the people that have listened here heard the history behind it, that Homer walked us through, and that was, I mean, that was abbreviated in all the intricacies that go with that. And then also reading some of the either the substack articles, other articles the two of these gentlemen have collaborated on, will give you a better long term appreciation of what's happened in that nation, so that there's it leads to better understanding of what's happening now, whether you know, agree or disagree, it's all about understanding so as things go forward, you know, we can be active members of of the discussion for what goes on in Venezuela and the US is, you know, relationship to Venezuela. Rob Burrell, Homer Harkins, I want to really thank you for your time today and really appreciate your insights.

Dr. Rob Burrell  37:44

Thank you so much for having us.

Jim Cardoso  37:49

Special. Thanks to our guests today, doctors Rob Burrell and Homer. Harkins, Rob's a senior research fellow right here at GNSI, and Homer is a military education mentor at the United Arab Emirates War College in UAE. Rob And Homer write a lot on Venezuela as well as resilience and resistance and irregular warfare around the globe. And Rob, as we discussed, maintains an excellent substack channel. We'll post that link in the show notes. Couple other quick notes before we wrap things up today, check out a new article in the national interest, written by our own Dr Armand makmudian. There's no doubt that the Trump administration has created unprecedented US foreign policy changes around the globe. Armand's article, what happens if Donald Trump bombs Iran explores whether such a tactic while weakening the Iranian states ability to brutally suppress the exploding protests in the country might provoke broader instability and even more violent crackdowns on the population. Look for a link in the show notes. We're also just a few weeks away from the 2026 St Petersburg world affairs conference held in February at the USF St Pete campus. This year's conference is February 10 and 11th, and is themed outer space international collaboration and competition. Astronaut and St Pete resident Nicole Scott will provide the keynote address. You can find more information at the conference website, and we'll drop a link in the show notes. Finally, save the date for GNSI Tampa Summit, six cracks in the land, freeing the nuclear Genie. We'll explore nuclear weapons proliferation and deterrence and golden dome, as well as nuclear energy for military applications. For example, small nuclear reactors. We'll be ready to announce more details about specific speakers in the next few weeks, but the lineup is shaping up to be a Who's Who among the world's leading nuclear experts. Tampa summit six is scheduled for March 24 to the 25th at the USF Tampa campus. Pre Register today at the event website, we provided a link in the show notes you. Now, next week, on the podcast, we're going to talk with the author of an article published in the recent special edition of GNSI Journal of strategic security. That issue focuses on lessons learned from the Russia Ukraine war, and the author, Daniel arms, examines what he believes is the very foundation of the conflict, competing claims to Ukraine's historical legacy. In other words, both Russia and Europe state claims to Ukraine's history, which is often at odds with what the Ukrainian people have wanted throughout their own history. I'm looking forward to hearing that discussion next week. If you don't want to miss that episode or any other episode, be sure to subscribe to the podcast on your favorite podcast platform, GNSI is creating great insight every day for you on YouTube, LinkedIn and x as well. Be sure to follow like and subscribe, tell your friends and colleagues as well. We also have a monthly newsletter, which you should sign up for immediately. All this on our website at usf.edu/gnsi, you

Jim Cardoso  41:05

that's going to wrap up this episode of at the boundary. Each new episode will feature global and national security issues we found to be insightful, intriguing, maybe controversial, but overall, just we're talking about, I'm Jim Cardoso, and we'll see you at the boundary.